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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.