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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|